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"American elites increasingly share the view that their
country's future is tied to Asian fortunes," declares
Kurt Campbell of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "American financial and trade statistics
have long reflected the importance of Asia," he
affirms, "but now U.S. military attention to the Asian
theater is catching up. The last several years have seen
renewed American efforts to revitalize bilateral secur
ity ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand,
and the Philippines. At the same time, however, for
ward deployment of U.S. forces is attracting opposi
tion in Japan and South Korea."
According to Campbell, in a presentation made to
the Foreign Policy Research Institute, "Most of Asia
has long desired a more attentive and engaged partner
in Washington. Now, ironically, the worry in Asian
capitals," he points out, "is that the United States is
preoccupied with China and may be veering toward
confrontation. Taiwan, it is feared, could be the cata
lyst for serious conflict. Asians seek to avoid a major
crisis," Campbell confides, "but at the same time do
not want to see the United States forced to back down.
While there is always hope of diplomatic progress
between Taipei and Beijing," he asserts, "uncertainty
about cross-strait security grows along with missile
buildups, military exercises, and the introduction of
new military technologies."
June Teufel Dreyer of the Foreign Policy Research
Institute advises the Bush Administration not to
assume "that China will necessarily evolve into a
democracy. The transition away from a socialist econ
omy," she emphasizes, "does not automatically result
in pluralist democracy." Dreyer describes China's cur
rent economic and political status as "a kind of state
capitalism under which entrepreneurs understand that
they have to toe the party line in order to stay in
business. While this could transition into pluralist
decision-making," she concedes, "it would be unwise
to assume that it will."
Dreyer cautions the Bush Administration against
the assumption that "a democracy will necessarily be
easier to deal with than the current autocracy. One of
the few emotions that the current mainland govern
ment has been able to tap to shore up its legitimacy is
nationalism," she notes. "The current government is
able to restrain these nationalist passions as it deems
advisable for diplomatic purposes. A popularly
elected democratic government might find it impossible to do so."
Dreyer stresses the importance of being able and
ready to quote China's words "back to China where
relevant. Remonstrances to Beijing about its human
rights abuses are invariably refuted with arguments
that the People's Republic is a sovereign state, and as
such can do what it wishes," she remarks. "Washing
ton needs to remind Beijing that the United States is
also a sovereign state. As such, it can invite, or allow
to travel at will, anyone from anywhere who comes in
peace and is willing to abide by its laws." While
recognizing "limits on America's ability to change
China," Dreyer insists that "Washington does, however, have some leverage."
Duplantier is the author of Politickles: Limericks Lampooning
the Lunatic Left (Merril Press, 2000), available at The Conservative Bookstore and other online locations.
Published by permission.
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