CATCH LOTS OF TRASH WITH FISHY POLLS
by by F.R. Duplantier
ST. LOUIS/ Behind The Headlines -- Political science professor Robert Weissberg emphasizes that "the United States did not begin as a direct
democracy under majority rule. The Framers of our
Constitution hoped to create a constitutional republic," he comments, "which required constraints on the
power of the majority. Such restraints both prevented
the tyranny of the majority and promoted the stability
of the new regime. The Framers did not doubt that the
legitimacy of the American republic lay in the consent
of the governed," Weissberg acknowledges, "but they
did not ask the people to decide every last detail. They
did not expect that the people could or should govern
directly."
In a report published by the Cato Institute, Weissberg reflects on how far we've come "from the
Founders' balanced, representative democracy. Public
opinion has achieved a remarkable, though largely
unnoticed, ascendancy," he laments. "The burden of
proof is now on those who oppose public opinion."
Weissberg worries that "reverence for unrestrained
majority rule is growing," and he rejects the assertion
of poll makers that "their polls convey legitimate
advice about policies and political strategies."
Weissberg charges that conventional polling is
"inherently unsuited to making policy choices regardless of expert claims to the contrary." The reason is
"polling industry economics. All survey organizations," he points out, "must monitor the bottom line.
Getting the public's two cents is expensive," Weissberg explains. "Though modern technology (especially the telephone) has sharply reduced costs, even
the most perfunctory technically acceptable study
exceeds $20,000. The price tag for a quality poll, one
with lengthy face-to-face interrogations conducted by
specially trained interviewers, can easily exceed
$100,000."
Weissberg argues that the need to constrain polling costs "results in a pervasive dumbing down of the
entire enterprise. The typical telephone solicitation
virtually precludes conveying information indispensable to rendering an informed judgment. Hugely complex issues become catch phrases," he remarks. "Even
if vital information was dutifully communicated to
respondents, today's telephone poll is unlikely to
engender heightened sophistication. The telephone is
inherently unsuited to conveying prodigious, unfamiliar detail on subjects boring to most respondents."
Weissberg charges that "contemporary polls are
seducing respondents, not offering them hard choices
of the type faced by legislatures or policy analysts.
Given the typical survey's inattention to costs, indifference to risk, and other shortcomings [associated
with the survey topic], it is a miracle that polls do not
find unanimous support for more social spending," he
remarks. "Polls do not provide worthwhile advice
about policy; they measure only wishes for a world of
benefits with no costs."
Weissberg refuses to surrender to "those pollsters
ever willing to seduce the public with appealing
nostrums that quickly become 'programs' to opportunistic office seekers." He recommends attacking
"the way polls are used, not the surveys themselves.
Absolutely nothing can impede the issuance of
unreflective cravings," Weissberg concedes, but their
value to decision makers must be challenged. "Abstract cravings for public largesse should be treated as
'interesting curiosities,'" he advises; "under no circumstances should they inform policymaking or determine policy choices."
Duplantier is the author of Politickles: Limericks Lampooning
the Lunatic Left (Merril Press, 2000), available at The Conservative Bookstore and other online locations.
Published by permission.
|