An Appeal to Reason, by Nigel Lawson

Review by W. J. Rayment / ConservativeBookstore -- In the last few weeks I have reviewed two books with the word "Reason" in the title. Interestingly enough, one book was written by a liberal and the other by a conservative. The liberal disparaged the use of reason. The conservative treated it as an unquestioned virtue.

Nigel Lawson is the conservative. He is a high-profile gentleman in Great Britain where he served as a Member of Parliament as well as Chancellor of the Exchequer. In "An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming" he indeed takes a reasoned approach to a subject that is fraught with considerable controversy. He begins by granting that CO₂ emissions are likely having an effect on global warming. He even presupposes that global warming will follow the worst case scenario, a rise of 5 and a half degrees (Fahrenheit) over the next hundred years. What he does then is an amazing feat of rhetorical ju-jitsu when he postulates what the actual effect of such a rise would mean.

Based on UN and official UK studies there are five different aspects of human life that could be affected, water, ecosystems, food, coasts, and health. Every indicator has shown that the amount of water flowing in the world's river's increased by 3% over the 20th Century. If this trend continues, then global warming may result in more fresh water available for drinking, irrigation, and manufacture. Global Warming can also mean a vast increase in the amount of arable land, and the increase in carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere is also very good for plants, meaning higher yields over more farmland, equaling more food to feed growing populations.

Many ecosystems would likely benefit from a warming trend, while the number of species that might be driven to extinction should global warming occur is quite small, even by IPCC estimates. Mr. Lawson points out that plants and animals have other more pressing problems than a five degree rise in temperatures.

Records show that sea levels have been rising for centuries and that there is little or no sign of an acceleration in that trend since global warming has been determined to be occurring. In fact data shows that the actual increase may have been less in the last half of the 1900s than in the first half. Based on current projections, the sea may rise up to 59 centimeters or roughly 2 feet in the next century.

As for the effect on health, Mr. Lawson points out that the only way to cut back on carbon emissions is by extremely limiting the use of carbon fuels. To do this would also severely restrict the growth of global economies. It is a well-known trend that the higher the GNP of a nation the healthier the population. By limiting economic growth we are limiting access to health care. He asks the question, "Is it better to be warm and healthy, or cold and poor?"

This trim, little volume, "An Appeal to Reason" is perhaps the most succinct and intelligent work I have read on global warming. In the course of the work Mr. Lawson also discusses what actually should be done in the face of what we know. He also addresses the very real possibility that governments might over-react. Finally he deals with the psychology of the global warming true-believer. Even appealing to our reason, Mr. Lawson has a snappy style that makes the work readable. Many times I found myself saying, "Aha, yes, that is so right, and so obvious." Yet it took a talented rhetorician to bring out the points so clearly.

This is an important work for anyone interested in the global warming debate - and this should be of us.

An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming is available at Amazon.