Book Review: "Mobocracy", by Matthew Robinson

For this reason polls, especially on controversial subjects often measure the unstudied attitude of the uncaring. Thus, a poll on Campaign finance reform might find that more than half favor it. But a more in-depth analysis might find that most people really don't care and haven't thought much about it. (Comprehensive studies have found that this topic generates very little interest from the public in spite of considerable media coverage.) It might also be found that those who favor reform, favor a different kind of reform. For example some people believe there should be less instead of more controls on who donates and how much they give to candidates.

Matthew Robinson, in his book, "Mobocracy", explains the forces affecting polling and how polling affects the political process. Mr. Robinson is an editor, radio commentator and research fellow for the Phillips Foundation. His broad knowledge and keen insights into the process are laid out in this easy to understand but comprehensive volume. He lavishes much detail on methods by which polls are skewed by wording, sample size and even analysis.

He deftly illustrates how simply adding or subtracting a few minor words in a question can change a respondent's likely choice. For example referring to "school choice" as a "voucher system" can knock several percentage points from the number of favorable votes. It seems that a few people associate vouchers with the idea of paying the rich to send their children to private schools. Yet when the ideas behind "school choice" are explained in any detail, its numbers improve markedly.

By taking polls over-night just after a big news story a largely different result will occur than if a poll is taken over several days and during a slower news week. Taking a poll about gun control, for example, just after a sniper goes berserk will yield different results than polling the public just before the beginning of hunting season.

The next question is: who should be polled? When early polls are taken about presidential candidates, the poll often is all inclusive, taking no account of the fact that often less than half of Americans will vote in an election. So candidates favored by people who tend not to vote get an inordinate amount of support in the poll.

All of this would be meaningless if it were not for the fact that the media and even the public puts much stock in polls. The media uses it to make elections into horse-races and to support its positions on social issues. Because of this, polling can have the tendency to change the color, tone, length and intensity of a debate. Polls create an environment during elections that cause candidates to drop out of races even before they can educate the public on their views. This is because a candidate who does not poll well in the early running will be ignored by the media and will find donations shrink and finally disappear. A kind of "Catch-22" for an unknown player. He cannot get his message out without money, and he cannot get money unless he can get his message out.

Mark Twain has often been quoted, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics." After reading Mr. Robinson's book you will come to realize that polling often falls into one of these three categories. Yet, he does make clear that polling is a tool, even a weapon, and like tools and weapons it can be used or it can be abused.

Polling can be used by industry to help shape products. It can be used by sociologists and scientists to advance medicine and psychology. It can be used for entertainment and trivia. It can also be used in politics to help gauge the effectiveness of public campaigns.

Ultimately, an educated public is the best way to fix the problems with polling. Not only will it make our understanding of polling data and its significance more profound, but perhaps the data itself will be made more accurate.

Matthew Robinson's book clearly explains the complexity of polling and its effects on politics. His analysis succinctly illustrates that polling is not so much a democratizing influence as it is a disturbing one. "Mobocracy" provides a great opportunity to learn about the art, science and necromancy of polling.

Purchase this book.